Commerce media has gotten really good at looking backward.
What did someone buy? What ad did they see? What happened after the impression?
But some of the more interesting developments in commerce media are starting to ask a different question:
What happens next?
In Episode 010 of Commerce Media Minute, Shaun Ayala looks at three developments involving Albertsons Media Collective, Sam’s Club Connect and Pinterest — and what they tell us about the evolution of prediction, intent and measurement.
Albertsons pushes retail media measurement toward incrementality
Albertsons Media Collective introduced Retail Media Incrementality-Based Multi-Touch Attribution, a new measurement solution developed with LiveRamp.
The solution is designed to connect impression-level media exposure across Albertsons Media Collective’s owned and operated channels, offsite media and participating platforms with Albertsons transaction data — providing advertisers with a deduplicated view of incremental sales impact across channels.
PepsiCo is an early pilot partner.
The bigger idea is the difference between attribution and incrementality.
Attribution asks which advertising gets credit for a sale.
Incrementality asks a harder question: Did the advertising actually contribute to a sale that otherwise would not have happened?
As retail media attracts more investment, advertisers may increasingly expect measurement that goes beyond connecting an impression to a transaction and gets closer to understanding actual incremental impact.
Sam’s Club Connect tries to predict what shoppers may do next
Sam’s Club Connect introduced new Predictive Precision Targeting capabilities designed to use membership data, AI and machine learning to identify potential future purchase opportunities.
Instead of relying only on what a shopper previously purchased, the models can look for signals associated with future behavior — including potential customer acquisition, churn, changes in brand loyalty and replacement cycles for products such as televisions.
Sam’s Club Connect is also expanding its Omni-Impact measurement solution across additional touchpoints, helping advertisers evaluate which channels drive incremental sales.
That creates an interesting combination:
One side of retail media is getting better at predicting what could happen next.
The other is trying to get better at proving what actually happened.
The important question for marketers may not simply be whether AI can identify another audience.
It’s whether those predictions lead to better outcomes — and whether marketers can prove it.
Pinterest turns visual search into an advertising opportunity
Pinterest introduced Visual Search Ads, a new format designed to place advertisers inside visual discovery experiences across Pinterest Search Results and Pin closeups.
Pinterest says users conduct more than 80 billion searches every month, with the vast majority being visual and more than half commercial.
The new format allows advertisers to bid for prominent placement and connect shoppers directly to their sites while people are still exploring what they want.
It’s another example of how the definition of search is changing.
Search was once primarily about typing words into a box.
Generative AI has made search increasingly conversational.
Visual AI is making images themselves part of the query.
For commerce marketers, that could mean understanding intent through a growing combination of words, images, behavior, purchase history and context.
The takeaway
Put the three stories together and an interesting pattern starts to emerge.
Albertsons Media Collective is working to better understand the incremental impact of media.
Sam’s Club Connect is using predictive models to identify what shoppers may need next.
Pinterest is turning visual intent into a new advertising opportunity.
Different companies. Different technologies. Different parts of the customer journey.
But commerce media is increasingly moving beyond simply knowing what someone bought.
The systems around it are trying to better understand what influenced that purchase, what someone might want next and whether advertising actually made a difference.
Commerce media is getting better at looking forward. But the real opportunity may be connecting prediction with proof — understanding what someone might do next, and then measuring whether the advertising actually made a difference.
In this episode
- Albertsons Media Collective and incrementality
- Multi-touch attribution in retail media
- LiveRamp and cross-channel measurement
- Sam’s Club Connect Predictive Precision Targeting
- AI-powered predictive audiences
- Omni-Impact measurement
- Pinterest Visual Search Ads
- Visual and multimodal search
- Purchase intent and product discovery
- The evolution of commerce media measurement
Commerce Media Minute is an independent ShaunAyala.com production hosted by Shaun Ayala, exploring commerce media, retail media, advertising, AI, measurement and the changing future of marketing.
Visit ShaunAyala.com for more.
Sources & Further Reading
Albertsons Media Collective — Retail Media Incrementality-Based Multi-Touch Attribution
Official announcement detailing the new measurement solution developed with LiveRamp and the PepsiCo pilot.
Albertsons Media Collective — In-Store Incrementality Measurement
Background on Albertsons Media Collective’s matched-market approach to measuring incremental impact from in-store media.
Sam’s Club Connect — Turning Membership Into Momentum
Official announcement covering Predictive Precision Targeting and the expansion of Omni-Impact measurement.
Pinterest — Visual Search Ads
Official announcement introducing Visual Search Ads and Pinterest’s latest performance advertising capabilities.
Pinterest — Multimodal AI with NVIDIA
Background on Pinterest’s new AI infrastructure supporting visual search, content understanding and other experiences across images and language.